Active Tornado Season Expected in the US at 15% Above 20-Year Average

An active 2026 tornado season is expected for the Central Plains, with roughly 15% more tornadoes than the 20-year average, according to the Kansas Institute of Tornado Dynamics.

Factors influencing this forecast include persistent La Niña conditions, warmer-than-average Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures, and an intensified low-level jet stream.

During the 2026 tornado season, it’s expected that 1,450 to 1,600 tornadoes will occur across the United States.

A risky time for tornado development will be between April 15 and June 10, 2026, KITD said.

High-risk regions include Central Oklahoma, Eastern Kansas and Northern Texas.

There’s a 22% higher chance of EF3 or greater than during the 2025 season, the institute said.