First Atlantic Hurricane of 2026 to Threaten US Gulf Coast

The U.S. Gulf Coast will likely be hit by the first Atlantic hurricane of the year in coming days as a storm rapidly gathers strength off the Mexican coast.

A tropical depression that formed yesterday has since strengthened into Tropical Storm Isaias, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in a 5 a.m. New York time advisory. It is currently 285 miles (460 kilometers) west of Progreso, Mexico, packing top sustained winds of 40 miles per hour.

The storm is expected to rapidly strengthen over the next two days, and become a hurricane by Thursday, the center said.

“Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place,” Philippe Papin, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, wrote in his outlook. “Tropical Storm Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend.”

Current track forecasts take the storm to the east of the major offshore oil and natural gas production south of Louisiana and Texas, although there could be some disruptions depending its path and size.

Chevron Corp. is evacuating non-essential personnel from its Gulf platforms as a precaution. No changes to production or operations are expected at this time, the company said.

If the forecast holds, it would be a Category 2 hurricane on the five-step, Saffir-Simpson scale. It would be the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, a milestone normally reached in the second week of August.

This Atlantic season has lagged well behind the usual pace, with eight named storms, none of which became hurricanes. By early October, an average season typically has produced about 11 named storms, including five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Strengthening El Niño conditions have increased wind shear that helped suppress activity across the basin. Shear occurs when winds change speed or direction at different altitudes, disrupting a storm’s structure.

The warm waters of the Gulf, with sea-surface temperatures of 30-31C, will fuel the storm, according to the hurricane center.

The intensity forecast for Tropical Storm Isaias has been raised since the last advisory, and the system is now set to hit a peak strength of 95 knots (109 miles per hour) in 48 hours while over the central Gulf, Papin wrote.

Top photo: People wait in line in the rain. Bloomberg.