‘Snow Globe’ Effect, Quiet Cat Years, Super El Niño: Carriers Prepping for a Raucous Second Half

It’s been a quiet couple of years, but a raucous start to storm seasons in certain areas and a super El Niño looking increasingly likely has carriers looking to update their disaster response plans as the second half of 2026 unfolds, according to a global third-party administrator.

Illinois suffered a record number of tornadoes in June, several typhoons have struck land including the recent massive storm in southern China, wildfires are burning in Utah and Colorado — and a string of recent earthquakes have hit around the globe.

Andy McCallum, vice president of specialty operations at Sedgwick, calls it a “snow globe effect,” that has increased the number of calls and queries incoming from the firm’s carrier clients.

“So, all these things that are kind of happening, and you almost feel like it’s a snow globe — everything’s just kind of shaken up,” said. “They’re looking for strong, preemptive cat plans; very scripted cat plans.”

Beside the Los Angles wildfires in 2025, major catastrophes have been scarce since Hurricane Ian in 2022. It’s almost as if one, or more, cats are long overdue, he said.

These carriers he’s hearing from are looking at their plans for a variety of possibilities, responses and aftermaths: quick-hitting tornadoes, storms they can see coming days ahead, staging people to deploy, the expected volume of claims following various catastrophes.

“We’ve done cat simulations with several companies,” McCallum said. “I just got back from Hawaii doing one, so it’s busy. It’s busy because they’re eager to make sure that they’re not the ones sitting there flat, right?”

He added: “History would tell you that it’s an eventuality, that we’re going to have a busy cat year and carriers don’t want to be caught flat-footed because of the quiet years.”

What’s being referred to as a super El Niño is now looking more than likely, and it brings with it increased wildfire risk in the West, drought and a possible “mini-Dust Bowl” in parts of the Great Plains, the potential of flooding in the South, and strong storms in the Pacific, according to AccuWeather.

Forecasters there believe there’s a 70% chance of a super El Niño. A super El Niño may already be helping to fuel severe heatwaves in Europe, with parts of France experiencing temperatures above 104°F. France had its hottest day ever in late June.

Some computer models are now predicting this El Niño could be stronger than any other event back to at least 1950.

AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham expects the wildfire risk in the Southwest to soon yield to another peril for other regions of the country.

“The wildfire activity has significantly ramped up across the Four Corners region in the Southwestern United States as a result of very dry and windy conditions late June into early July,” he said. “This risk will continue across the region as we head into the middle of the month, but the forecast does call for the arrival of the North American Monsoon heading into mid-month, which will begin to shift the risk area northward.”

Monsoons and thunderstorm activity across the Southwest can pose a risk for new fires from dry lightning strikes and winds from dying thunderstorms, while north across the central Rockies, Great Basin and Northwest, wildfire risk is expected to increase through the rest of summer and into early fall, according to Buckingham.

Dry season is already occurring across California, drying fuels for potential wildfires in the months ahead. Risk is expected to be highest in late summer and early fall as winds become more common, AccuWeather forecasts.

“One major unknown factor to California’s wildfire season will be if any tropical activity in the eastern Pacific Basin tracks north and brings rainfall to Southern California this summer,” Buckingham said. “If a disruption in the dry season occurs, this can provide a temporary, but notable reduction in the wildfire risk. In central and Northern California, monsoon or tropical moisture may struggle to occur, as it can largely remain to the south. This can result in a higher risk for wildfires compared to Southern California this season.”

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