Hurricane Erin Strengthens, Threatens East Coast With Rough Surf

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Hurricane Erin will likely become even larger as it moves past the Bahamas, with the dangerous storm expected to strengthen but remain over the ocean as it churns off the US East Coast, battering beaches later this week.

Erin’s top winds measured at 140 miles (225 kilometers) per hour Monday, making it a Category 4 storm on the five-step, Saffir-Simpson scale, the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 2 p.m. New York time. The storm may gather more power as the day progresses, the agency added.

The hurricane — the first of the six-month Atlantic season — was 140 miles (225 kilometers) north of Grand Turk Island moving northwest at about 10 mph (17 kmh), and heavy rain was forecast through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas.

If Erin holds to its forecast track, it will avoid a direct strike on any of the islands in the area or the US East Coast. It’s expected to trace a shallow, C-shaped arc through the western Atlantic, passing between North Carolina and Bermuda overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

While Erin won’t directly hit East Coast states, residents on the shoreline will know the storm is passing by, the National Weather Service said. Waves may crest more than 20 feet on Long Island Thursday and Friday. Dangerous surf, flooding and beach and coastal damage are expected in North Carolina, where local officials have begun ordering tourists and residents to evacuate from some Outer Banks barrier islands.

“Numerous roads will likely be impassable under several feet of water and vehicles will likely be submerged,” the National Weather Service said in a briefing, adding that flooding could begin in North Carolina as soon as Tuesday.

Coastal flooding and rip currents are also expected in several states including New Jersey, Virginia and Florida.

Erin’s winds increased rapidly over the weekend to reach 160 mph, making it a scale-topping Category 5 storm and one of the earliest examples of such a powerful system to emerge in the Atlantic this year. In July 2024, Beryl became the earliest hurricane to reach top intensity during the Atlantic season.

Erin’s hurricane-strength winds stretch 80 miles from its center and tropical-storm-strength wings of 39 mph to 73 mph reach out 230 miles, or slightly larger than the distance between Washington and New York City.

“Some additional strengthening is possible today,” US Senior Hurricane Specialist Richard Pasch wrote in a forecast analysis. “Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.”

While Erin barely grazed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, it still knocked out power to many residents. By Monday afternoon, about 6% of Puerto Rico residents were without power, Luma Energy reported.

Tropical storm warnings have been posted for the Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as the southeastern Bahamas.

Peak Approaching

Another tropical wave that bears watching is moving off Africa into the Atlantic, said Dan Pydynowski, a meteorologist with commercial forecaster AccuWeather Inc.

The patch of thunderstorms and showers was near Cabo Verde off the African coast and moving west across the Atlantic, with a 60% chance of becoming a storm in the next week.

That part of the ocean, between the Caribbean and Africa, is known as the main development region to forecasters and it’s where some of history’s most deadly and damaging storms have formed. It’s also a part of the ocean that becomes particularly active between mid-August and late September.