liberty has been operating this way for years – they buy business, and each renewal shows an increase in pricing, but its so ‘competitively priced’ that other carriers still can’t compete. tough times, but a couple years later they are back to doing the same stuff again – financial incompetence. mutual companies aren’t required to release figures, so only ted kelly knows how well off liberty is….
In 2003 I told the RVP of Atlantic that it would be “broke, sold or dead, drifting in the water with a cut-thru endorsement to support it’s Btt rating in a year” We made a bet and the weasle never paid. I just made the same bet with a very high-level guy with Liberty, only this time, becasue of their massive size and diversity, they will part-out the car…selling that which they just bought (Safeco, et al). History guys! It’s what Aetna did in the 1980’s! Same for CNA in the late 90’s…they part-off their more stable, profitable assets (personal lines) that requires a 82% surplus ratio on personal lines so that they can fre-up capital to compete with those crazy nuts at AIG who are gutting premiums. Their surplus and capital is tied to real estate and old fashion REITS guys. Trust me! I was paid/made (way too much) to know this stuff. Liberty isn’t toast. They’re not going into a downward spiral and Kelly is a brilliant CEO. They/it will be fine…50% smaller than they are today if the bear market rally fizzles and 50% smaller than they are today if the bull market is back (becasue they are a mutual with horrible investment longevity tables they can’t get out)…either way…they will be half…too bad…I really like them and their committment to agents….Ahh..what do it know…? I’m a one-off nut who retired at age 48 trading nothing but insurance related equities up and down…
You guys have no concept of how bad this is going to get…none! In 2009 when Zurich sells Farmers New World Life for a pittence…maybe then you and that dude from New York who outted me (my name) several months ago will realize that the market will de-lever once credit default gauarntees begin to uncouple, first in aisa and then in the EU and then here. It will take 6 days and the Treasury will step-in and when that day comes all you purist who think insurance is “did over should” or “the commming & going rule” will be “shocked”.
Your company, your industry, your livelihoods have just started to take casualites. (And to that dude in New York: “It could’nt happen to a nicer guy”)
Just as an FYI, LMG is not a mutual anymore. Do some research, they recently became a mutal holding company. The companies they operate are all stock companies with “phantom stock” held by the board. If you want to know what their results look like you should just head over to their website as they have posted all of that information for the last 10 years or so.
From a pricing standpoint on business, every company has industry’s where they believe they are the expert, Liberty is no different. In those SICs they will likely out price everyone; however, having worked there and for other companies, there are also SICs where they are routinely outpriced.
You are right, except their main SIC expertise is in the area of Banks and automotive related industries and we know how well those sectors are doing. Examples:….TD Banknorth, Commerce Bank, National City, Fifth Third, Arvin Meritor…should I go on. They are in DEEP and they know it. Also, Ted Kelly has a total lack of integrity in my opinion. He doesn’t even read his own e-mail. He is totally out of touch.
Which unit are you talking about with the banks? Liberty International would be the only unit that would handle D&O or Fidelity on that scale and from my knowledge having worked at the company they are very high up in those towers in terms of limits and their portion is very small (maybe covering $5M xs $250 or $300M)
As for the automotive side of things, those were never targeted SIC codes when I was there either – sure they now have a large personal lines auto book due to the acquisition of Safeco, but look at the 2007/08 acquisition of Ohio Casualty – a property driven company not an automotive.
Although Ted Kelly might not answer his emails, it does not necessarily put him out of touch. You have to remember, this was a guy that took a company on the verge of collapse in the early/mid 90s and turned it into a top 5 or 6 P&C company.
It’s very easy to make a statement but like most things at IJ, people don’t validate it with any facts, just opinions.
i can honestly say i lack the genius of some other posters. could your please elaborate on zurich selling farmers new world life, and how it relates to the credit default guarantees. f not could you point me to resource. needing education in texas
Funny thing – all of the bad news around Liberty Mutual swirls, but it hasn’t trickled down to Indiana, Peerless, etc., yet. They are still the biggest whores on the street, buying business, with little to no underwriting. Indiana and Peerless UW’s should have no pride – because they require no skill. (and the same can be said for their agents)
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liberty has been operating this way for years – they buy business, and each renewal shows an increase in pricing, but its so ‘competitively priced’ that other carriers still can’t compete. tough times, but a couple years later they are back to doing the same stuff again – financial incompetence. mutual companies aren’t required to release figures, so only ted kelly knows how well off liberty is….
Wonder what Liberty’s bonuses looked like this year? Will agents be running from them like they’re running from AIG?
In 2003 I told the RVP of Atlantic that it would be “broke, sold or dead, drifting in the water with a cut-thru endorsement to support it’s Btt rating in a year” We made a bet and the weasle never paid. I just made the same bet with a very high-level guy with Liberty, only this time, becasue of their massive size and diversity, they will part-out the car…selling that which they just bought (Safeco, et al). History guys! It’s what Aetna did in the 1980’s! Same for CNA in the late 90’s…they part-off their more stable, profitable assets (personal lines) that requires a 82% surplus ratio on personal lines so that they can fre-up capital to compete with those crazy nuts at AIG who are gutting premiums. Their surplus and capital is tied to real estate and old fashion REITS guys. Trust me! I was paid/made (way too much) to know this stuff. Liberty isn’t toast. They’re not going into a downward spiral and Kelly is a brilliant CEO. They/it will be fine…50% smaller than they are today if the bear market rally fizzles and 50% smaller than they are today if the bull market is back (becasue they are a mutual with horrible investment longevity tables they can’t get out)…either way…they will be half…too bad…I really like them and their committment to agents….Ahh..what do it know…? I’m a one-off nut who retired at age 48 trading nothing but insurance related equities up and down…
You guys have no concept of how bad this is going to get…none! In 2009 when Zurich sells Farmers New World Life for a pittence…maybe then you and that dude from New York who outted me (my name) several months ago will realize that the market will de-lever once credit default gauarntees begin to uncouple, first in aisa and then in the EU and then here. It will take 6 days and the Treasury will step-in and when that day comes all you purist who think insurance is “did over should” or “the commming & going rule” will be “shocked”.
Your company, your industry, your livelihoods have just started to take casualites. (And to that dude in New York: “It could’nt happen to a nicer guy”)
Just as an FYI, LMG is not a mutual anymore. Do some research, they recently became a mutal holding company. The companies they operate are all stock companies with “phantom stock” held by the board. If you want to know what their results look like you should just head over to their website as they have posted all of that information for the last 10 years or so.
From a pricing standpoint on business, every company has industry’s where they believe they are the expert, Liberty is no different. In those SICs they will likely out price everyone; however, having worked there and for other companies, there are also SICs where they are routinely outpriced.
You are right, except their main SIC expertise is in the area of Banks and automotive related industries and we know how well those sectors are doing. Examples:….TD Banknorth, Commerce Bank, National City, Fifth Third, Arvin Meritor…should I go on. They are in DEEP and they know it. Also, Ted Kelly has a total lack of integrity in my opinion. He doesn’t even read his own e-mail. He is totally out of touch.
Which unit are you talking about with the banks? Liberty International would be the only unit that would handle D&O or Fidelity on that scale and from my knowledge having worked at the company they are very high up in those towers in terms of limits and their portion is very small (maybe covering $5M xs $250 or $300M)
As for the automotive side of things, those were never targeted SIC codes when I was there either – sure they now have a large personal lines auto book due to the acquisition of Safeco, but look at the 2007/08 acquisition of Ohio Casualty – a property driven company not an automotive.
Although Ted Kelly might not answer his emails, it does not necessarily put him out of touch. You have to remember, this was a guy that took a company on the verge of collapse in the early/mid 90s and turned it into a top 5 or 6 P&C company.
It’s very easy to make a statement but like most things at IJ, people don’t validate it with any facts, just opinions.
i can honestly say i lack the genius of some other posters. could your please elaborate on zurich selling farmers new world life, and how it relates to the credit default guarantees. f not could you point me to resource. needing education in texas
Oracle,
There are boorish people posting on every site, most of the readers here clearly appreciate your comments and knowledge.
Who is “The Oracle”? I too enjoyed reading his insite and would like to research some of his other positions.
Funny thing – all of the bad news around Liberty Mutual swirls, but it hasn’t trickled down to Indiana, Peerless, etc., yet. They are still the biggest whores on the street, buying business, with little to no underwriting. Indiana and Peerless UW’s should have no pride – because they require no skill. (and the same can be said for their agents)