According to catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide, a major tropical cyclone is threatening the northern Philippines for the fourth time in the past month.
AIR rported that Typhoon Mirinae is expected to make landfall on the major island of Luzon on Friday or early Saturday, “following in the wake of last week’s Typhoon Lupit (which veered north just before reaching the island) and that of Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana earlier. Together, Ketsana and Parma caused widespread destruction on Luzon.”
Dr. Peter Sousounis, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide, noted: “In the past 12 hours forecasters have become more confident that Mirinae will pass very close to Manila, probably within 60 to 65 miles (100 kilometers) and to its north. If so, the city will be on the left-hand, or weak-side of the storm. Additionally, Mirinae is not expected to intensify significantly and may actually make landfall as a Category 1 storm. However, its close passage to Manila suggests that the city may still suffer damage.”
According to the most recent information Typhoon Mirinae is currently a Category 2 typhoon with winds of around 103 mph (166 kph) and gusts of 126 mph (204 kph).
The area where Mirinae is most likely to pass has already been inundated by previous storms, and more rainfall would make the situation even worse. “Luzon is the Philippines’ rice granary, accounting for about 20 percent of the country’s total rice production,” AIR explained. “Ketsana and Parma destroyed about $40 million worth of the crop. It is now the harvest season, so farmers and agricultural officials are concerned about the flooding impact Typhoon Mirinae will have. At present, near its center Mirinae is generating more than 12 inches of rain per 24-hour period.”
Source: AIR Worldwide- www.air-worldwide.com
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