The Met Office, the UK’s official weather forecasting center, (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk.) has forecast 10 tropical storms in the North Atlantic during the July to November period, with a 70 percent chance of there being between 7 to 13. The forecast “represents below-normal activity relative to the 1990-2005 long-term average of 12.4” said the bulletin.
The Met office forecast, which, it observes, “is unique,” as it is “the only one in the world produced using global climate models,” has also “proven to provide unparalleled accuracy and advice in trials during 2005 and 2006.” Its results proved more accurate than “more-traditional methods based on historical analysis alone.”
Matt Huddleston, Met Office Principal Consultant on climate change noted: “The Met Office forecast has already demonstrated its unparalleled skill over previous seasons, successfully predicting the change from the exceptionally active Atlantic season of 2005 to the below-normal season of 2006. This marked difference between seasons was missed by a number of statistical prediction methods, which have traditionally formed the basis of most published forecasts.”
Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service indicated that the Met Office has been using its climate models to provide “seasonal forecasts for the UK” with a great deal of success. The tropical storm forecast is “the next step” in predicting weather events outside the UK.
Varley indicated that developing the model would “help the UK government protect the interests of its citizens and businesses abroad.”
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