Since \”X\” (ex?) is an unknow and \”Spurt\” (pert) is a drip, how about naming hurricanes something like Expert, About to hit land, Blow hard, Can\’t find a levee, etc. Who knows? It might work. And you go, Rosie!!
There is nothing in this article about global warming. Gray believes in a natural cycle of hurricane activity, not in any way tied to a theory of human-induced global warming.
In fact, nobody\’s seasonal hurricane predictions should be construed as being caused by global warming. Even if human-induced global warming is true, the link between it and hurricane activity is not yet established.
Also, there are many jobs that require you to \”predict the future,\” and actuary is one. People in such fields know that any prediction carries with it an inherent uncertainty that doesn\’t tend to make its way into news articles. Everyone who predicted a high level of hurricane activity did so with full understanding that if an El Nino occurred, the predictions would in all likelihood be too high. That\’s what occurred, and we still had an average hurricane season.
Given that the next El Nino won\’t occur for another 5-7 years, the uncertainty around this year\’s projections are probably much smaller than last year\’s.
To quote Yoda- \”The future, always in motion it is.\”
The \’experts\’ can get a general idea of what might happen given a set of possible circumstances in a vague time frame.
Kind of like \’predicting\’ out of 5 NASCAR races 15 cars will wreck and 7 of them will roll over. Got a pretty good shot at being right, but there\’s always those pesky \’variables\’ that you can blame when 14 cars wreck and 9 of them roll.
Ever since I was told \”Wilma won\’t be bad\” and stayed for it I\’ll never trust any of them again.
Not even the experts can predict what kind of Hurricane Seson we are going to have here in America, but we all hope that it will be a good one. Either way, its best to be prepared for what could or might happen. Be sure to have a plan for your family!
The point is moot. We\’ll get however many storms mother nature deals. We can\’t do anything different to prepare for them so it doesn\’t matter how many we have or how strong they are. It makes for great conversation but little else. Mankind has studied them for decades. Technology can guestimate their strenth and approximate where they\’ll make landfall. But so what? These storms are only partially predicatable. We can\’t limit them so aside from having a good disaster plan and making structures as wind resistant as possible we\’re wasting a lot of resources.
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Since \”X\” (ex?) is an unknow and \”Spurt\” (pert) is a drip, how about naming hurricanes something like Expert, About to hit land, Blow hard, Can\’t find a levee, etc. Who knows? It might work. And you go, Rosie!!
Glad you\’re back!!
There is nothing in this article about global warming. Gray believes in a natural cycle of hurricane activity, not in any way tied to a theory of human-induced global warming.
In fact, nobody\’s seasonal hurricane predictions should be construed as being caused by global warming. Even if human-induced global warming is true, the link between it and hurricane activity is not yet established.
Also, there are many jobs that require you to \”predict the future,\” and actuary is one. People in such fields know that any prediction carries with it an inherent uncertainty that doesn\’t tend to make its way into news articles. Everyone who predicted a high level of hurricane activity did so with full understanding that if an El Nino occurred, the predictions would in all likelihood be too high. That\’s what occurred, and we still had an average hurricane season.
Given that the next El Nino won\’t occur for another 5-7 years, the uncertainty around this year\’s projections are probably much smaller than last year\’s.
To quote Yoda- \”The future, always in motion it is.\”
The \’experts\’ can get a general idea of what might happen given a set of possible circumstances in a vague time frame.
Kind of like \’predicting\’ out of 5 NASCAR races 15 cars will wreck and 7 of them will roll over. Got a pretty good shot at being right, but there\’s always those pesky \’variables\’ that you can blame when 14 cars wreck and 9 of them roll.
Ever since I was told \”Wilma won\’t be bad\” and stayed for it I\’ll never trust any of them again.
Not even the experts can predict what kind of Hurricane Seson we are going to have here in America, but we all hope that it will be a good one. Either way, its best to be prepared for what could or might happen. Be sure to have a plan for your family!
The point is moot. We\’ll get however many storms mother nature deals. We can\’t do anything different to prepare for them so it doesn\’t matter how many we have or how strong they are. It makes for great conversation but little else. Mankind has studied them for decades. Technology can guestimate their strenth and approximate where they\’ll make landfall. But so what? These storms are only partially predicatable. We can\’t limit them so aside from having a good disaster plan and making structures as wind resistant as possible we\’re wasting a lot of resources.
Not true. I can think of several White House administrative positions where you can be wrong all day long and not be fired. :-)
OOPS! How true!