ReAdvisory, the analytical arm of specialty reinsurance intermediary Carvill, has released a white paper titled: “2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season in Review,” which examines recent weather patterns in the Atlantic.
Carvill said that although the “report highlights the low level of hurricane activity in 2006,” it nonetheless “warns of elevated activity for the coming decades.”
“Dr. Steve Smith, an atmospheric physicist and Senior Vice President of ReAdvisory, has been researching weather phenomena for 13 years,” the bulletin noted. “His research on the 2006 Hurricane season concludes that 2006 was merely an average year, despite forecasts that it would be higher than normal given the expectation of above average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic, which usually prompts increased hurricane activity.”
Although SSTs were warm, high levels of wind shear and the formation of an El Niño combined to suppress hurricane activity. “In almost every category of storm, 2005 had at least double the number of storms seen in 2006,” Dr. Smith explained. “Indeed, there were only two named US tropical storms that hit land throughout 2006, compared with seven in 2005.”
Carvill also indicated: “Scientific debate continues to be divided on whether or not the warming of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) is created by a warming and cooling cycle or a linear combination of global warming and aerosol cooling, but the report makes one thing clear: the warming of SSTs is set to continue.”
Smith stated that “based on published scientific studies, insurers and reinsurers can expect heightened levels of hurricanes to continue for another 10-20 years minimum.”
The ‘2006 Hurricane Season in Review’ white paper is available online at http://www.carvill.com.
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