um…the author/writer of the article, used an incorrect heading…because if you read in the article – it states 12 – 16 names hurricanes and yet the author wrote 9! what a misconception!!! and he’s supposed to get the facts right!
If they make the same forecast each year they are still “close” to what actually happens. Are they brighter than the Farmer’s Almanac or just because a degree do they get more attention?
If these noted meteorologist are so knowledgeable why did thye not predict a severe tornado season hitting areas that have been quit for many years?
This rather expensive S.W.A.G. regarding the number of hurricanes for 2008-09 does absolutely nothing for the general public nor the insurance market. Based on past (and pathetic) accuracy of these prognostications, they are little more than speculation. The fact remains that we’ll experience however many tropical storms and/or hurricanes as mother nature wishes to produce. We can’t protect assests anymore than we have. We don’t need anymore emergency plans. We can’t alter the path or the severity of the storms. So aside from knowing that every year between June 1st and November 30th we may experience these storms, it’s time to stop the mental masturbation.
Sometimes, you find an interesting tidbit buried in a news story. This was in this AP report on the upcoming hurricane season:
“Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator R. David Paulison, who took over after the devastating 2005 season that ravaged New Orleans, said his agency is now better prepared to handle disasters. Reminding residents that bags of ice would no longer be distributed after storms, Paulison said people need to use the forecast and take some “personal responsibility.”
No more ice for you, hurricane victims! Exercise market-driven personal responsibility, or be prepared to die of thirst!
What planet did these Bush Administration officials come from? Or, what rock did they crawl out from under?
Is it the estimates which are up or the actual number of storms that are up???-LOL.
Seriously, I think that the numbers really are SWAG to the degree that its similar to EQ probabilities-a little more than hunches even when they reforecast the estimate halfway through the season. Face it, the weather is predictable in the big picture sense-the Law of Large Numbers kicks in and works pretty well but its REALLY hard to predict with any kind of actuarial credibility the number of weather events in a specific geographic area in a specified time frame. I mean,we can predict the number of fires in the US very accurately, but not for say Miami Florida in the month of June for instance.
What ever happened to personal responsibility? I grew up on the Gulf coast of FL and am moving back soon. When you choose to live in a disaster prone area then you need to be prepared. Have non-perishables to last a week or two. If you need to have ice then invest in a small $100 freezer and load it up. Even without power it will last a while. Have plenty of bottled water – it is ok to drink warm! FEMA needs to focus on the big items of rescue, safety, clean up, etc. We, as individuals need to have a plan to take care of ourselves and come together as communities to take care of those less fortunate instead of always expecting the government to handle our responsibilites for us.
Can you imagine the logistics necessary to provide ice, over a period of days, to a widespread area? Makes about as much sense as providing temporary housing. Amd thats where my tax dollars disappear, never to be seen again.
For 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 most if not all cat models got the hurricane seasons wrong in terms of frequency, severity or both. In fact in 2006 & 2007 many agencies did mid-hurricane season revisions to their original prognostications; and many missed on those as well.
It is a reminder that all models represent a hypothesis (i.e. educated best guess), and perhaps the past several hurricane seasons serve to reinforce that concept.
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um…the author/writer of the article, used an incorrect heading…because if you read in the article – it states 12 – 16 names hurricanes and yet the author wrote 9! what a misconception!!! and he’s supposed to get the facts right!
Check your own facts!
The actual report on the NOAA web stie is
12-16 Named Storms
6-9 Hurricanes
2-5 Major Hurricanes (3+ on Saffir-Simpson)
If they make the same forecast each year they are still “close” to what actually happens. Are they brighter than the Farmer’s Almanac or just because a degree do they get more attention?
If these noted meteorologist are so knowledgeable why did thye not predict a severe tornado season hitting areas that have been quit for many years?
This rather expensive S.W.A.G. regarding the number of hurricanes for 2008-09 does absolutely nothing for the general public nor the insurance market. Based on past (and pathetic) accuracy of these prognostications, they are little more than speculation. The fact remains that we’ll experience however many tropical storms and/or hurricanes as mother nature wishes to produce. We can’t protect assests anymore than we have. We don’t need anymore emergency plans. We can’t alter the path or the severity of the storms. So aside from knowing that every year between June 1st and November 30th we may experience these storms, it’s time to stop the mental masturbation.
Sometimes, you find an interesting tidbit buried in a news story. This was in this AP report on the upcoming hurricane season:
“Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator R. David Paulison, who took over after the devastating 2005 season that ravaged New Orleans, said his agency is now better prepared to handle disasters. Reminding residents that bags of ice would no longer be distributed after storms, Paulison said people need to use the forecast and take some “personal responsibility.”
No more ice for you, hurricane victims! Exercise market-driven personal responsibility, or be prepared to die of thirst!
What planet did these Bush Administration officials come from? Or, what rock did they crawl out from under?
what?! this is not a bush problem but a FEMA problem!
i lived through several hurricanes…how long do they think people will have for food protection? i think they need to rethink this one!
Is it the estimates which are up or the actual number of storms that are up???-LOL.
Seriously, I think that the numbers really are SWAG to the degree that its similar to EQ probabilities-a little more than hunches even when they reforecast the estimate halfway through the season. Face it, the weather is predictable in the big picture sense-the Law of Large Numbers kicks in and works pretty well but its REALLY hard to predict with any kind of actuarial credibility the number of weather events in a specific geographic area in a specified time frame. I mean,we can predict the number of fires in the US very accurately, but not for say Miami Florida in the month of June for instance.
What ever happened to personal responsibility? I grew up on the Gulf coast of FL and am moving back soon. When you choose to live in a disaster prone area then you need to be prepared. Have non-perishables to last a week or two. If you need to have ice then invest in a small $100 freezer and load it up. Even without power it will last a while. Have plenty of bottled water – it is ok to drink warm! FEMA needs to focus on the big items of rescue, safety, clean up, etc. We, as individuals need to have a plan to take care of ourselves and come together as communities to take care of those less fortunate instead of always expecting the government to handle our responsibilites for us.
Can you imagine the logistics necessary to provide ice, over a period of days, to a widespread area? Makes about as much sense as providing temporary housing. Amd thats where my tax dollars disappear, never to be seen again.
For 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 most if not all cat models got the hurricane seasons wrong in terms of frequency, severity or both. In fact in 2006 & 2007 many agencies did mid-hurricane season revisions to their original prognostications; and many missed on those as well.
It is a reminder that all models represent a hypothesis (i.e. educated best guess), and perhaps the past several hurricane seasons serve to reinforce that concept.