Here we go again. These guys (in Colorado no less, about as far from hurricane country as you can get in the US) who make their annual predictions are rarely accurate. In fact, they usually have to ervise their predictions every year.
The sad part about this is that so many insurance companies and reinsurers base their strategies on what these predict.
You know I hear lots of Northerns make comments regarding the Colorado University Science Dept making hurricane predictions from the mountains. You don’t have to be in the Tropics to calculate statistical data. Remember they are only issuing Forecasts; which means to estimate. Try living in Southeastern US through 35 years of hurricane seasons and you may decide that maybe the scientists know a little more about Meteorology than you do.
Nobody, not even the scientists who make them, expects these forecasts to be correct every time. The science of forecasting hurricane activity is only part of the continueing study of tropical storms. The same data is available in Ft. Collins, Colorado as is available in Miami, Florida.
And quite frankly, nobody makes decisions based solely on these forecasts, save maybe how much capital to hold for paying out hurricane claims in the coming year.
Many Southeners relay on these forecasts! Whether they are perfect or not, these predictions give many of us time to prepare. Mother Nature tends to have a mind of her own, so no weather forecast is 100%.
Trust me, the insurance companies get their money no matter what they predict. It’s not the insurance companies we should worry about, it’s the people who live in the places most affected by hurricanes.
Regardless of what the forecast is, in the everyone on the coast has to be prepared. Have plenty of extra water, batteries and an evacuation plan. It could only be one hurricane, and that one could be heading your way.
Well out of 1 Million years the planet may have existed, sciencists have only been recording hurrican data for the last 57 years. We have to work with what we have.
And the others are also correct, no matter how many they forecast, if you live in the Gulf Coast or the Atlantic Coast regions you have to be prepared. Even if it’s for just one hurricane. We were prepared as we could be in 2004 for the 3 hurricanes that crossed central Florida.
I think what you are paying for as far as insurance goes are the luxuries that people take for granted…like the oil, coffee ect. that our major port bring in!
Try making a living in NY selling Homeowners where we haven’t had a hurricane in 23 years. Predictions of doom and gloom may well be accurate for Florida and the Gulf Coast, but have been dead wrong for the Northeast.
I have my own theory as to why hurricanes haven’t come up this way in so long: Nature abhors a vacuum. Tropical storms that spawn in the South Atlantic begin moving West. At the same time, large numbers of immigrants have been moving from Mexico and Central America into the US, thus leaving a vacuum there. The tropical storms and hurricanes then move to Central American, drawn in by this vacuum. Since we have so many of these new immigrants up North here, the storms stay away.
Makes about as much sense as the Colorado folks do. And teh results seem to verify this thoery. When are the Noble Proze folks going to call me?
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Here we go again. These guys (in Colorado no less, about as far from hurricane country as you can get in the US) who make their annual predictions are rarely accurate. In fact, they usually have to ervise their predictions every year.
The sad part about this is that so many insurance companies and reinsurers base their strategies on what these predict.
You know I hear lots of Northerns make comments regarding the Colorado University Science Dept making hurricane predictions from the mountains. You don’t have to be in the Tropics to calculate statistical data. Remember they are only issuing Forecasts; which means to estimate. Try living in Southeastern US through 35 years of hurricane seasons and you may decide that maybe the scientists know a little more about Meteorology than you do.
Thank you Florida U/W for a thoughtful reaction.
Nobody, not even the scientists who make them, expects these forecasts to be correct every time. The science of forecasting hurricane activity is only part of the continueing study of tropical storms. The same data is available in Ft. Collins, Colorado as is available in Miami, Florida.
And quite frankly, nobody makes decisions based solely on these forecasts, save maybe how much capital to hold for paying out hurricane claims in the coming year.
Many Southeners relay on these forecasts! Whether they are perfect or not, these predictions give many of us time to prepare. Mother Nature tends to have a mind of her own, so no weather forecast is 100%.
Trust me, the insurance companies get their money no matter what they predict. It’s not the insurance companies we should worry about, it’s the people who live in the places most affected by hurricanes.
Here is my prediction…… There will be a few severe storms…. a few tropical storms….and a few Hurricanes.
Regardless of what the forecast is, in the everyone on the coast has to be prepared. Have plenty of extra water, batteries and an evacuation plan. It could only be one hurricane, and that one could be heading your way.
Is 57 years out of the 1 million plus the planet has existed statisticall significant?
Well out of 1 Million years the planet may have existed, sciencists have only been recording hurrican data for the last 57 years. We have to work with what we have.
And the others are also correct, no matter how many they forecast, if you live in the Gulf Coast or the Atlantic Coast regions you have to be prepared. Even if it’s for just one hurricane. We were prepared as we could be in 2004 for the 3 hurricanes that crossed central Florida.
I think what you are paying for as far as insurance goes are the luxuries that people take for granted…like the oil, coffee ect. that our major port bring in!
Try making a living in NY selling Homeowners where we haven’t had a hurricane in 23 years. Predictions of doom and gloom may well be accurate for Florida and the Gulf Coast, but have been dead wrong for the Northeast.
I have my own theory as to why hurricanes haven’t come up this way in so long: Nature abhors a vacuum. Tropical storms that spawn in the South Atlantic begin moving West. At the same time, large numbers of immigrants have been moving from Mexico and Central America into the US, thus leaving a vacuum there. The tropical storms and hurricanes then move to Central American, drawn in by this vacuum. Since we have so many of these new immigrants up North here, the storms stay away.
Makes about as much sense as the Colorado folks do. And teh results seem to verify this thoery. When are the Noble Proze folks going to call me?