1) Insurer’s do NOT base rate decisions off of these forecasts.
2) Gray and his team are studying hurricane formation for a number of reasons, not the least of which is pure scientific inquiry. The forecasts are a side “benefit.”
3) Nobody, not even Dr. Gray, expects the long-term forecasts to be anything close to 100% accurate.
Seems Prof. Gray has decided to use the S.W.A.G. method since his empirical mumbo jumbo isn’t worth anything. I would love to know who pays this guy to prognosticate about hurricanes. It adds no value to anthing or anybody and is about as useless as Punxatawny Phil. Whether he says we’ll have 5 or 8 or 30 what does it matter? What will people do differently? We can’t reduce their force or alter their course. Just hold on and enjoy the ride baby.
I don’t believe anyone will ever be able to accurately predict the frequency or severity of Atlantic hurricanes. That would be the equivalent of predicting Al Gore would win an Emmy, Oscar and Nobel prize. IMPOSSIBLE!
There is no value added component of Gray’s studies or predictions. We know as much as we can about hurricanes and have and effective early warning system. Anything beyond that is unworthy of anyone’s time and discussion. I agree with Dread………so what?
Breaking News! Upon hearing Professor Gray’s latest forecast, the National Association of Hurricanes domiciled in North Africa filed an internation suit with the world court in the Hague, accusing Gray and his colleagues of discrimination, libel, and slander. The NAH has not yet released it’s letter of intent on how many hurricanes it will unleash on the US mainland until April 2008
Is it possible that I can put my name in for this job when Dr. Gray retires?
I don’t have a degree in Meteorology, but it does not take for the job this team has done. He is wrong almost every year, and then has the option every couple of months to “update” his prediction based on how the season is going. Who the hell can’t do that? I would have more respect if he said, “I have no freaking idea”.
That would be the most accurate thing to come out of his mouth in years!!
Dr Gray is absolutely correct. I got similar results using my (patent pending) method of hurricane forecasting*.
Needed two regular 6-sided gaming dice, one white, one red.
1) Roll both die, take the number from the red die (this is your first integer) then the number from the second die to arrive at a two digit number (i.e. 1 on red 5 on white is the number 15)
The number from above is the number of named storms for 2008
2) Roll both die using the same red and white calculation to arrive at another two digit number. This is the percentage of those storms that will reach hurricane force.
3) Roll both die again using the same formula. This is the percentage of the storms from step 2 that will make landfall on the US.
4) Roll only the white die. This is the percentage that one of the storms from step three will be category 4 or higher.
5) Roll both die once more. You’ll need to roll higher than a 42 in order to use your +5 boots of escaping and +7 sword of Bush-bashing in order to survive the onslaught long enough to find a reason to explain why it’s all Bush’s fault. Rolling lower than 20 means the Orcs of Mordor will feast on your flesh.
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To stem off the inevitable flood of comments:
1) Insurer’s do NOT base rate decisions off of these forecasts.
2) Gray and his team are studying hurricane formation for a number of reasons, not the least of which is pure scientific inquiry. The forecasts are a side “benefit.”
3) Nobody, not even Dr. Gray, expects the long-term forecasts to be anything close to 100% accurate.
Gee..one of these days they will be correct. Just like rolling the dice. Let’s see, with the finger to the wind I predict 11 hurricanes…
Seems Prof. Gray has decided to use the S.W.A.G. method since his empirical mumbo jumbo isn’t worth anything. I would love to know who pays this guy to prognosticate about hurricanes. It adds no value to anthing or anybody and is about as useless as Punxatawny Phil. Whether he says we’ll have 5 or 8 or 30 what does it matter? What will people do differently? We can’t reduce their force or alter their course. Just hold on and enjoy the ride baby.
People better start listening to me
I don’t believe anyone will ever be able to accurately predict the frequency or severity of Atlantic hurricanes. That would be the equivalent of predicting Al Gore would win an Emmy, Oscar and Nobel prize. IMPOSSIBLE!
There is no value added component of Gray’s studies or predictions. We know as much as we can about hurricanes and have and effective early warning system. Anything beyond that is unworthy of anyone’s time and discussion. I agree with Dread………so what?
Breaking News! Upon hearing Professor Gray’s latest forecast, the National Association of Hurricanes domiciled in North Africa filed an internation suit with the world court in the Hague, accusing Gray and his colleagues of discrimination, libel, and slander. The NAH has not yet released it’s letter of intent on how many hurricanes it will unleash on the US mainland until April 2008
Is it possible that I can put my name in for this job when Dr. Gray retires?
I don’t have a degree in Meteorology, but it does not take for the job this team has done. He is wrong almost every year, and then has the option every couple of months to “update” his prediction based on how the season is going. Who the hell can’t do that? I would have more respect if he said, “I have no freaking idea”.
That would be the most accurate thing to come out of his mouth in years!!
“People better start listening to me”
Haha, now that’s a scary thought…
Dr Gray is absolutely correct. I got similar results using my (patent pending) method of hurricane forecasting*.
Needed two regular 6-sided gaming dice, one white, one red.
1) Roll both die, take the number from the red die (this is your first integer) then the number from the second die to arrive at a two digit number (i.e. 1 on red 5 on white is the number 15)
The number from above is the number of named storms for 2008
2) Roll both die using the same red and white calculation to arrive at another two digit number. This is the percentage of those storms that will reach hurricane force.
3) Roll both die again using the same formula. This is the percentage of the storms from step 2 that will make landfall on the US.
4) Roll only the white die. This is the percentage that one of the storms from step three will be category 4 or higher.
5) Roll both die once more. You’ll need to roll higher than a 42 in order to use your +5 boots of escaping and +7 sword of Bush-bashing in order to survive the onslaught long enough to find a reason to explain why it’s all Bush’s fault. Rolling lower than 20 means the Orcs of Mordor will feast on your flesh.