Apparently Gray needs to retire because he has no clue how to predict storms and has been wrong before and will be wrong again this year. Here’s Kathy’s prediction….no hurricanes in Florida this year, just like last year!
What exactly is the value-add to a hurricane forecast? It’s somebody’s best guess as to how many hurricanes and how severe they’ll be. What are people supposed to do with that un-actionable information? Ma nature will throw as many storms at whatever severity levels she wishes. We can’t diminish their severity or change where they’ll make landfall. Nobody is going to do anything different because of the forecast. Insurance companies rely on reliable historical data and claims experience so they don’t benefit from it either.
The early warning system we have in place has been fine tuned over the years and provides more than enough time for responsible people to get out of the way or put up their hurricane shutters. This whole forecasting thing is the pet project of a few nerds. It’s inaccurate, unreliable, and a waste of resources. Anybody can “re-forecast” halfway through the season. An what is a hurricane researcher doing in the mountains of Colorado anyway?
If this guy has been predicting hurricanes for as long as stated in the article, what is his track record? In other words, how accurate has he been over the years? Is he 100%, 80%, 60% or ? accurate in his past predictions. It would be nice to know.
THE WEATHERMAN JOB IS GETTING TO BE A JOKE -SINCE THEY ARE RARELY CORRECT DO THEY GET A POOR JOB PERFORMANCE ? I DON’T SEE WHERE THEY SHOULD GET RAISES UNTIL THEY GET IT RIGHT! AND IS THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY BASING THEIR RATE INCREASES ON THESE PREDICTIONS?
Either of you geniuses willing to bet 40 billion dollars that nothing will happen? Do you have any concept of the multitude of variables involved in understanding the changes in global weather? Hurricane Andrew was Aug 29. Kate was the week of Thanksgiving. Go back to your Greenie Meanie Coloring Books, and Al Gore Action Figures and let real scientists report on real facts.
I know of no insurance company that would base rates on these forecasts. The rate approval process is just too darn long – the forecast would be obsolete by the time the rates went into effect.
The traditional method for factoring in such low-frequency, high-severity events like hurricanes was to determine a long-term average from observed data. Modern computing power has allowed insurers to supplement that historical data with theoretical “storm track data,” as building methods and population shifts skew the historical data.
The goal is to determine a figure called the Probable Maximum Loss. This figure is typically expressed as a percentage of the property value, and that data is used to determine rates.
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Where else can you work, be wrong and get a raise?
Apparently Gray needs to retire because he has no clue how to predict storms and has been wrong before and will be wrong again this year. Here’s Kathy’s prediction….no hurricanes in Florida this year, just like last year!
What exactly is the value-add to a hurricane forecast? It’s somebody’s best guess as to how many hurricanes and how severe they’ll be. What are people supposed to do with that un-actionable information? Ma nature will throw as many storms at whatever severity levels she wishes. We can’t diminish their severity or change where they’ll make landfall. Nobody is going to do anything different because of the forecast. Insurance companies rely on reliable historical data and claims experience so they don’t benefit from it either.
The early warning system we have in place has been fine tuned over the years and provides more than enough time for responsible people to get out of the way or put up their hurricane shutters. This whole forecasting thing is the pet project of a few nerds. It’s inaccurate, unreliable, and a waste of resources. Anybody can “re-forecast” halfway through the season. An what is a hurricane researcher doing in the mountains of Colorado anyway?
You’ve said it, sister!
As for you Kathy…..I hope you are right.
ClaimsGuy, well as a Floridian, I think Colorado would be a great place to live especially because of the hurricanes.
Everybody stand on the east coast and blow at the Atlantic
If this guy has been predicting hurricanes for as long as stated in the article, what is his track record? In other words, how accurate has he been over the years? Is he 100%, 80%, 60% or ? accurate in his past predictions. It would be nice to know.
THE WEATHERMAN JOB IS GETTING TO BE A JOKE -SINCE THEY ARE RARELY CORRECT DO THEY GET A POOR JOB PERFORMANCE ? I DON’T SEE WHERE THEY SHOULD GET RAISES UNTIL THEY GET IT RIGHT! AND IS THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY BASING THEIR RATE INCREASES ON THESE PREDICTIONS?
Either of you geniuses willing to bet 40 billion dollars that nothing will happen? Do you have any concept of the multitude of variables involved in understanding the changes in global weather? Hurricane Andrew was Aug 29. Kate was the week of Thanksgiving. Go back to your Greenie Meanie Coloring Books, and Al Gore Action Figures and let real scientists report on real facts.
I know of no insurance company that would base rates on these forecasts. The rate approval process is just too darn long – the forecast would be obsolete by the time the rates went into effect.
The traditional method for factoring in such low-frequency, high-severity events like hurricanes was to determine a long-term average from observed data. Modern computing power has allowed insurers to supplement that historical data with theoretical “storm track data,” as building methods and population shifts skew the historical data.
The goal is to determine a figure called the Probable Maximum Loss. This figure is typically expressed as a percentage of the property value, and that data is used to determine rates.
Was Insurance Journal so quick to publish this article that they didn’t bother to spell check the article’s title?