This begs the basic question of insurance, namely the many paying the losses of the few. Should Florida and the Carolinas, and Utah and the Dakotas pay increased premiums for the threat of terrorism faced by NY and the other big cities? Should rural New Mexico pay for auto insurance fraud and scams in LA? How far should this go?
My point is that here in the Northeast, we’re paying a dear price for a perceived threat of hurricanes, something that is not happening here, despite predictions by “experts.” Actuaries can tell us when large number of losses are going to occur from predictable perils, but hurricanes have proven to be notoriously UNpredictable, as evidenced by the 19 years since NY and NE have had one. I am in a terribly unfair industry and if I can’t get fair treatment for my customers and prospects, at least I am going to complain about it. I guess I can’t really do much else.
While it is obvious that the amount of at risk property in hurricane-prone and hurricane-possible areas has increased, the dire predictions of major hurricanes with their associated catastrophic losses don’t seem to come true. We are told that the longer we go without a major hurricne, the better the odds of getting one the next year. I think what is really the case is that the longer we go without a major hurricne, the better the predicters think their odds are of being right.
I have been in the insurance business for 30 years writing a good deal of homeowners on Long Island. The last hurricane we had here was Gloria in September 1985. Ever since then I have heard dire predictions of more hurricanes, yet we have yet to have one (well, Hurricane Bob did just barely touch the east end of Long Island, but it caused very little damage).
I think the biggest problem here is that the more the doom & gloom folks predict a major hurricane, the more justified re-insurers feel in charging exorbitantly high rates for areas that just don’t have much hurricane experience or serious threat of same.
While Larry is comfortable in NOT having any serious catastrophes in New York, consider Florida and North Carolina that have been hit more times than anywhere else.
The soothsayers from all over the WORLD are now concurring. Perhaps the US mainland will again be spared, but why is the Florida contingency gearing up for a 400,000 claim storm?
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Chubb needs to verify their data. According to NOAA the outlook is 6-8 becoming hurricanes. Although that is still too many.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html
This begs the basic question of insurance, namely the many paying the losses of the few. Should Florida and the Carolinas, and Utah and the Dakotas pay increased premiums for the threat of terrorism faced by NY and the other big cities? Should rural New Mexico pay for auto insurance fraud and scams in LA? How far should this go?
My point is that here in the Northeast, we’re paying a dear price for a perceived threat of hurricanes, something that is not happening here, despite predictions by “experts.” Actuaries can tell us when large number of losses are going to occur from predictable perils, but hurricanes have proven to be notoriously UNpredictable, as evidenced by the 19 years since NY and NE have had one. I am in a terribly unfair industry and if I can’t get fair treatment for my customers and prospects, at least I am going to complain about it. I guess I can’t really do much else.
While it is obvious that the amount of at risk property in hurricane-prone and hurricane-possible areas has increased, the dire predictions of major hurricanes with their associated catastrophic losses don’t seem to come true. We are told that the longer we go without a major hurricne, the better the odds of getting one the next year. I think what is really the case is that the longer we go without a major hurricne, the better the predicters think their odds are of being right.
I have been in the insurance business for 30 years writing a good deal of homeowners on Long Island. The last hurricane we had here was Gloria in September 1985. Ever since then I have heard dire predictions of more hurricanes, yet we have yet to have one (well, Hurricane Bob did just barely touch the east end of Long Island, but it caused very little damage).
I think the biggest problem here is that the more the doom & gloom folks predict a major hurricane, the more justified re-insurers feel in charging exorbitantly high rates for areas that just don’t have much hurricane experience or serious threat of same.
While Larry is comfortable in NOT having any serious catastrophes in New York, consider Florida and North Carolina that have been hit more times than anywhere else.
The soothsayers from all over the WORLD are now concurring. Perhaps the US mainland will again be spared, but why is the Florida contingency gearing up for a 400,000 claim storm?